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CRS-17
public statements. For example, at the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty review
conference in 2000, Russian Foreign Minister Ivanov stated that Russia was about
to finish implementing its PNIs. But, at a follow-up meeting two years later, Russian
officials stated that the elimination process was continuing, and, with adequate
funding, could be completed by the end of 2004.39 Furthermore, in late 2003,
General Yuri Baluyevsky, who was then the first deputy chief of staff of the Russian
General Staff stated that Russia would not destroy all of its tactical nuclear weapons,
that it would, instead, "hold on to its stockpiles" in response to U.S. plans to develop
new types of nuclear warheads.40 Many analysts and U.S. officials interpreted this
statement as a sharp reversal of Russia's commitments under the 1991 PNIs.
With consideration for these uncertainties, analysts have estimated that Russia
may still have between 3,000 and 8,000 warheads for nonstrategic nuclear weapons,
with the lower number reflecting the number of deployed weapons and the higher
number including those weapons that remain in central storage. While some estimate
that only air-delivered weapons remain operational, the total amount may be split
between warheads for tactical aviation, naval nuclear weapons, and air defense
missiles, with some ground forces still in the mix.41 Russia had also reportedly
reduced the number of military bases that could deploy nonstrategic nuclear weapons
by over 250 and had consolidated its storage areas for these weapons, eliminating
about two-thirds of the 500-600 facilities it had operated at the beginning of the
1990s.42
Changing the Focus of the Debate
The preceding sections of this report focus exclusively on U.S. and
Soviet/Russian nonstrategic nuclear weapons. These weapons were an integral part
of the Cold War stand-off between the two nations. The strategy and doctrine that
would have guided their use and the numbers of deployed weapons both figured into
calculations about the possibility that a conflict between the two nations might
escalate to a nuclear exchange. Other nations -including France, Great Britain and
China - also had nuclear weapons, but these did not affect the central conflict of the
Cold War in the same way as U.S. and Soviet forces.
The end of the Cold War, however, and the changing international security
environment during the 1990s, renders incomplete any discussion of nonstrategic
nuclear weapons that is limited to U.S. and Russian forces. Because both theseJoshua Handler, in Alexander and Millar, Tactical Nuclear Weapons, p. 29.
40 Vladimir Isachenkov, "U.S. Nuke Development Concerns Russia," Interfax, November
26, 2003.
4 A table summarizing three different estimates can be found in Andrea Gabbitas, "Non-
strategic Nuclear Weapons: Problems of Definition," in Larsen, Jeffrey A. and Kurt J.
Klingenberger, editors, Controlling Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons: Obstacles and
Opportunities, United States Air Force, Institute for National Security Studies, July 2001,
p. 25. See also Nikolai Sokov, "The Tactical Nuclear Weapons Controversy," Jane's
Defence Weekly, January 2001, pp. 16-17.42 Joshua Handler, in Alexander and Millar, Tactical Nuclear Weapons, p. 30.
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Woolf, Amy F. Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons, report, September 9, 2004; Washington D.C.. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metacrs6104/m1/20/: accessed May 21, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.