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CRS-15
weapons.32 For example, the military doctrine issued in 1997 allowed for the use of
nuclear weapons " in case of a threat to the existence of the Russian Federation."
The doctrine published in 2000 expanded the circumstances when Russia might use
nuclear weapons to include attacks using weapons of mass destruction against Russia
or its allies "as well as in response to large-scale aggression utilizing conventional
weapons in situations critical to the national security of the Russian Federation."33
Analysts have identified several factors that contributed to Russia's increasing
dependence on nuclear weapons. First, with the demise of the Soviet Union and the
economic upheavals of the 1990s, Russia no longer had the means to support a large
and effective conventional army. The conflict in Chechnya highlighted for manyjust
how weak Russia's conventional military forces had become. Russian analysts also
saw emerging threats in other former Soviet states along Russia's periphery. Many
analysts believed that by threatening, even implicitly, that it might resort to nuclear
weapons, Russia hoped it could enhance its ability to deter similar regional. Russia's
sense of vulnerability, and its view that the threats to its security were increasing, also
stemmed from the debates over NATO enlargement in the mid-1990s. Russia feared
the growing alliance would create a new challenge to Russia's security, particularly
if NATO moved nuclear weapons closer to Russia's borders. These concerns
contributed to the statement that Russia might use nuclear weapons if its national
survival were threatened. Russian officials repeated many of their concerns about
NATO enlargement and new nuclear threats during the latest round of expansion in
2003 and 2004.
Finally, for many in Russia, NATO's air campaign in Kosovo in 1999
underlined Russia's growing weakness and NATO's increasing willingness to
threaten Russian interests. Its National Security Concept published in 2000 noted
that the level and scope of the military threat to Russia was growing. It cited,
specifically, as a fundamental threat to its security, "the desire of some states and
international associations to diminish the role of existing mechanisms for ensuring
international security." There are also threats in the border sphere. "A vital task of
the Russian Federation is to exercise deterrence to prevent aggression on any scale
and nuclear or otherwise, against Russia and its allies." Consequently, Russia
concluded that it "should possess nuclear forces that are capable of guaranteeing the
infliction of the desired extent of damage against any aggressor state or coalition of
states in any conditions and circumstances."34The debate over the role of nuclear weapons in Russia's national security
strategy considered both strategic and nonstrategic nuclear weapons. With concerns
focused on threats emerging around the borders of the former Soviet Union, analysts
specifically considered whether nonstrategic nuclear weapons could substitute for
32 According to Alexander Pikayev, a Russian defense analyst, scenarios for the possible use
of nuclear weapons broadened since 1993 and 1997. See David Hoffman, "New Russian
Security Plan Criticizes West, Doctrine Broadens Nuclear Use Policy," Washington Post,
January 15, 2000. p. 1.
33 4 "Russia's Military Doctrine," Reprinted in Arms Control Today, May 2000.
34 "2000 Russian National Security Concept,"Nezavisimoye Voennaye Obozreniye, January
14, 2000.
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Woolf, Amy F. Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons, report, September 9, 2004; Washington D.C.. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metacrs6104/m1/18/: accessed May 21, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.