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INTRODUCTION
Mathematical and statistical methods have long played an important role
in nuclear material safeguards, as a large body of theoretical and applied
work in the literature demonstrates. But because the methods are complex
and sometimes involve burdensome computations, widespread practical applica-.
tion has tended to lag behind theoretical developments.
Quantitative methods occupy an especially important place in internation-
al safeguards. Safeguards agreements negotiated in connection with the
Non-Proliferation Treaty specifically provide that in implementing safeguards
the IAEA "shall take full account of technological developments in the field
of safeguards", including "statistical techniques and random sampling."(1)
And the desirability of basing the safeguards system on objective or quanti-
tative criteria has often been stressed.
From this point of view, it is of interest to consider ways of facili-
tating the application of mathematical and statistical methods in internation-
al safeguards, as well as ways of enhancing the usefulness of such techniques.
As part of the U.S. Program of Technical Assistance to IAEA Safeguards,
Pacific Northwest Laboratory has developed a package of computer programs,
called INSPECT, that can help to further these objectives.
DESCRIPTION OF THE PROGRAMS
In Part F of the IAEA Safeguards Technical Manual(2), some basic
statistical concepts and techniques for international safeguards applications
have been documented. The INSPECT programs are based mainly on the methods
described in Part F, and in particular on Chapters 6-9, which deal with the
inspection and verification of material balances.
THE MATERIAL BALANCE MODEL
. The starting point for the analysis is a material balance model. The
material balance consists of four components: beginning inventory(BI),
receipts(R), shipments(S), and ending inventory(EI). Material unaccounted
for (MUF) is defined as
MUF = BI + R - S - EI
Each of the components of the material balance is divided into strata. Each
stratum is subdivided into batches. Each batch consists of a number of
discrete items.
Amounts of nuclear material are estimated on the basis of three basic
kinds of measurement operations: bulk measurement (i.e., weight or volume),
sampling, and analysis. In general, the uncertainty in an item amount can
be expressed in terms of random and systematic components of variance
associated with these basic operations. A relative error model is used.
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Mullen, M.F. INSPECT: a package of computer programs for planning and evaluating safeguards inspections, article, January 1, 1980; Richland, Washington. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc1055734/m1/4/: accessed May 30, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.